The impact of 9/11 on global aviation - 10 years on

As we approach the 10th anniversary of the attack on New York’s Twin Towers, IATA has released an analysis of the impact of the event on aviation.

The report, published over the name of new director general Tony Tyler, says that: “A decade after the event, there can be no doubt about aviation’s resilience.

“By 2004 revenues and traffic surpassed 2000 levels. And by 2006 aviation had returned to profitability—albeit with a weak 1.1% margin. In the interim airlines dealt with SARS, additional terrorist attempts, wars, and rising oil prices.

“It took three years to recover the $22 billion revenue drop (6%) between 2000 and 2001. When the global financial crisis struck in 2008, 2009 revenues fell by 14% ($82 billion) to $482 billion. This was largely recovered in the following year when industry revenues rose to $554 billion and airlines posted an $18 billion profit. Clearly the restructuring of the decade has left airlines leaner and more resilient in the face of crisis.

“Over the decade, the dimensions of global aviation have also changed. IATA expects 2011 airline revenues of $598 billion—nearly twice the $307 billion of 2001. Airlines are also expected to carry 2.8 billion passengers and 48 million tonnes of cargo. That’s a billion more people flying and 16 million more tonnes of cargo than in 2001. “While it is difficult to isolate the impact of the events of 2001, we can say that they were a part of a chain of events that cost the industry three years of growth. The 2008 global financial crisis cost another two years of growth.

“The legacy of 9.11 is felt most in airport security. Aviation is more secure today than in 2001. But this has come at a great price in terms of passenger convenience and industry costs…

Other extracts of significant interest from the IATA report include:

“Global passenger traffic (tonne kilometers performed) declined by 2.7% in 2001… Traffic did not surpass the 2000 level until 2003. It continued to rise until 2009 when, owing to the global financial crisis, it declined 2.1% year-on-year.

“Global airline revenues declined from $329 billion in 2000 to $307 billion in 2001 and further to $306 billion in 2002. Revenues rebounded to $322 billion in 2003 and then to $379 billion in 2004. The next revenue dip was in 2009 when they fell $82 billion to $482 billion. In percentage terms this 14% drop was more than twice the decline experienced in 2001-2…

“Airlines lost $13 billion in 2001 and a further $11.3 billion in 2002.The industry recorded its first post-September 11 annual profit in 2006 ($5 billion), and earned $14.7 billion in 2007. The following year rising oil prices and the global financial crisis plunged airlines back into the red with 2008-9 total losses of $25.9 billion.

“Within months of the attacks, Swissair and Sabena went bankrupt as the 9.11 shock pushed these financially weak carriers into collapse…”

It's also significant that, despite the necessarily reactive nature of aviation security, there has not been a successful terrorist attack on a Western airline in the 10 years since 9/11.