Pilot demand will require proactive strategy at schools level

Although predictable for years, the provision of the required professionals to the airline industry has received scant attention and in some cases is still not registering with senior airline financial gatekeepers, who often assume that the market will 'correct itself'.

    

The whole problem is a holistic one; it's all happening because a bundle of negative factors are combining into a 'perfect storm'.

    

Airlines have started to poach pilots from each other but when this source dries up it takes two years to grow airline pilots from college or university to entry via the cadet scheme.

    

1. The Need

Assuming that a 'double dip' recession is avoided, the airline industry projects a doubling of the global fleet over the next 20 years, equating to a need for around 500,000 new pilots.

    

2. Experience loss

* Almost all the early baby boomer pilots will soon have retired

* They learnt deep lessons, often in the military; and are 'gatekeeper' captains in the airline industry

* As they leave, the average experience on flight decks will continue to shrink, but even fasterndustry

    

3. Shrinking recruiting pool

* The new recruiting pool today comprises young people who know much more about careers from the internet

* And the airline piloting career, as viewed on various blogs, does not shine

* Less pay, more fatigue, continuous industrial issues plague airlines todayattention

* And new recruits are often expected to pay for their own training

* Interest in airline careers is (a) shrinking, (b) not so passionate, (c) second or third career choice

4. New generation of candidates

* Used to mobile devices and rapid knowledge acquisition from the earliest age

* Perhaps lower attention spans?

* Perhaps fewer team players?

* But rapid self-learners

     

5. Selection and training processes

* Largely unchanged for sixty years

* Often relegated to 'back office' support functions

6. Instructor shortages

* Already widespread, especially at ab-initio level; due to poor pay and lack of interest

CONSEQUENCES

    

1. High demand + low interest = declining entry standards to man the planes

2. Shrinking experience + outdated selection and training = higher risk

So, unless we respond to this challenge in schools and universities, the industry will self-correct - and we may not need so many instructors after all.