Embraer sees strong growth in regional jets in Asia Pacific

In its latest 20-year forecast, Embraer predicts 4.9 per cent average annual growth on a global basis for aircraft in the 30- to 120-seat category.

China is forecast to have the highest growth at an annual rate of 7.3 per cent, while Asia Pacific as a region will grow at around six per cent annually.

Embraer also sees a requirement for 575 new jets in the category in Asia Pacific in the next 20 years; with 71 per cent of this is demand to support organic growth and 29 per cent to replace older aircraft.

Other highlights of the Embraer report related to the Asia Pacific region include:

* the 30- to 120-seat jet fleet will increase to 655 units by 2029, from 195 units in 2009

* by 2029, it is expected that only five per cent of the current fleet will remain in service

* airlines will expand services in under-served secondary markets thereby creating opportunities for smaller capacity, right-sized aircraft

* Asia Pacific (and China) will represent more than one-third of the world air traffic by 2029

* Japan faces many of the same challenges as other mature markets around the world where the deployment of 60- to 120-seat aircraft have been shown to be a highly effective solution to optimizing restructured route networks

* also in Japan, where airport capacity limitations are not severe, complementing or right-size operations with smaller capacity jets will provide considerable benefit to secondary cities

* in India, anticipated further consolidation will encourage surviving airlines to focus on greater operational efficiency; where stricter capacity management will play an important role

* also in India, smaller right-sized aircraft should help airlines achieve better results in this market by providing optimized air service options on Category II and Category III routes in particular.

Embraer forecasts growth in the category to average around 3.5 per cent in Europe and North America, while Latin America and Russia (CIS) should be at six per cent. Africa is expected to grow at around five per cent.