Airbus: 27,800 new aircraft needed in next 20 years

Airbus believes the ongoing trend for larger eco-efficient aircraft will create a demand for 27,800 new aircraft in the next 20 years.

According to the latest Airbus Global Market Forecast (GMF), by 2030 the global passenger fleet will more than double from today’s 15,000 aircraft to 31,500. This will include 27,800 new aircraft deliveries, of which 10,500 will be needed for replacing older, less fuel-efficient aircraft.

Airbus projects that the combined value of the over 26,900 passenger aircraft (above 100 seats) and more than 900 new factory built freighters needed by 2030 to be US$3.5 trillion.

The trend towards larger aircraft will continue, says Airbus, in order for the aviation sector to keep pace with future growth in demand.

Airbus forecasts that Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPKs) will grow by an average 4.8 per cent per year, which is equivalent to traffic more than doubling in the next 20 years.

Geographically, Airbus predicts the Asia-Pacific region to continue to grow to account for approximately 34 per cent of demand by 2030, followed by Europe (22 per cent) and North America (22 per cent). These figures would make Asia-Pacific the biggest market by share of passenger traffic (33 per cent), followed by Europe (23 per cent) and North America (20 per cent).

Not surprisingly, Airbus sees India (9.8 per cent) and China (7.2 per cent) having the fastest growth rates over the next 20 years in terms of passenger traffic on domestic markets.